Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 0.108101 0.126207 0.147080 0.173074 0.204791 0.242504 0.291146
2025-10-19 0.084814 0.107117 0.135425 0.174538 0.228050 0.300003 0.406345
2025-10-26 0.068501 0.092459 0.125489 0.175536 0.251608 0.366644 0.561454
2025-11-02 0.054870 0.078383 0.113204 0.170489 0.266419 0.428687 0.743467
2025-11-09 0.043650 0.065430 0.099732 0.160409 0.271359 0.479866 0.942017
2025-11-16 0.037202 0.058466 0.094075 0.161898 0.297898 0.584401 1.323272
2025-11-23 0.031909 0.052325 0.088471 0.162223 0.323747 0.704786 1.855309
2025-11-30 0.028136 0.048052 0.085262 0.166531 0.361208 0.878582 2.739809
2025-12-07 0.024893 0.044104 0.081811 0.169571 0.398691 1.084332 4.051252
2025-12-14 0.021582 0.039413 0.075872 0.165423 0.417356 1.256120 5.582859
2025-12-21 0.018003 0.033581 0.066365 0.150055 0.398700 1.295592 6.610673
2025-12-28 0.016289 0.031263 0.064040 0.152281 0.435371 1.582412 9.990072
2026-01-04 0.014993 0.029660 0.063139 0.158636 0.492403 2.039837 16.828251
2026-01-11 0.013667 0.027763 0.061155 0.161495 0.541032 2.543917 27.795415
2026-01-18 0.012484 0.025990 0.059111 0.163675 0.590761 3.159722 47.135130
2026-01-25 0.011218 0.023818 0.055591 0.160039 0.614952 3.680550 73.820687
2026-02-01 0.009941 0.021428 0.051029 0.151457 0.611806 4.017479 104.893280
2026-02-08 0.009206 0.020253 0.049572 0.153478 0.665261 5.002227 199.265176
2026-02-15 0.008517 0.019091 0.047918 0.154298 0.715181 6.149846 392.184927
2026-02-22 0.008010 0.018315 0.047236 0.158786 0.793396 7.982890 959.700805
2026-03-01 0.007520 0.017509 0.046303 0.162017 0.869696 10.238646 2611.877017
2026-03-08 0.006919 0.016323 0.043954 0.158374 0.896831 11.928198 6102.662359
2026-03-15 0.006147 0.014574 0.039515 0.143989 0.832448 11.622013 8120.770439